Austin's Astros 290 Blog

I'm going to improve the Astros by this much (photo by David J. Phillip/AP)

I wanted to take a moment to catch up on some Astros winter news on which I’ve yet to opine, as well as reflect on 2011 and look forward to the Astros’ last season in the NL in 2012.

With their many moves this fall, the Astros would have been one of the league’s top headliners if they hadn’t spent the last five seasons working themselves into complete insignificance. Despite that, the huge shifts this offseason are indicating real reason for optimism for the first time in a very, very long time in Houston.

The Astros have a new GM in former Cardinals scouting and drafting department head Jeff Luhnow. I am a big, big fan of this hire. With Luhnow’s background in data analysis indicates the Astros are finally moving in the direction that wise ballclubs have been moving for over a decade. Ed Wade was a huge step in the wrong direction, but hopefully this move will begin taking them in the right direction with someone who actually employs advanced metrics to understand the players he’s getting and their real value.

Indications that the Astros are moving toward a more advanced understanding of metrics and the economy of baseball are bolstered by this week’s news that the Astros have been talking to ESPN’s Keith Law about a front office job. I don’t always agree with Law but regardless of whether he gets the job, I love the indication that they’re trying to finally bring this club into the 21st century.

Luhnow also has a strong background in Latin-American baseball, which will help return the Astros to the kind of prominence they had in Latin scouting while Gerry Hunsicker was here. They used to have a great grasp on the wealth of talent in Latin America but that has fallen off drastically in the last seven years, very much to the Astros’ detriment. He was also involved in the drafting of Colby Rasmus and Jaime Garcia, so perhaps he will be able to help turn around the Astros’ draft woes. And the timing couldn’t be better, since they have the number one overall pick in 2012.

As far as players go, this off-season has been as quiet as I expected, though I do like the few moves the Astros have made so far under the direction of Luhnow. His first move was a difficult one for Astros fans to swallow because he dealt one of the Astros’ few good players from 2010, Mark Melancon, but count me among those who think this was a very good move for the Astros.

Astros welcome INF Lowrie, who is undoubtedly impressed by the size of their jumbotron (photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

First of all, as long as you’re losing a ton of games, closer isn’t a very pressing need. Secondly, Melancon was a good closer and I liked him a lot, but he wasn’t Brad Lidge in his prime. He was a good player whose greatest value to the Astros was in his trade value, and the Astros got good value in the trade. They filled their need at shortstop by getting Jed Lowrie, who is expected to perform well in an every day role; and they got 25 year-old right hander Kyle Weiland, who will compete for a spot in the starting rotation and should end up as a solid closer, at the very least.

That’s a very nice haul for a reliever who would only be a setup man on 25 major league teams and gets lasting value for the key player acquired in the Lance Berkman trade that has really turned out to be a bust.

The Astros also offered contracts to their only two arbitration eligible players, J.A. Happ and Humberto Quintero. Star players? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But two guys worthy of bringing back for cheap, and it looks like the Astros can bring them back for very cheap. That’s good value for a pair of guys who are capable of performing beyond their contracts.

That’s pretty much it for their off-season moves. I like them. Nothing that grabs a lot of headlines, but certainly solid moves that continue to move them on the right path.

Speaking of the right path, Ed Wade has certainly found his by returning to the Phillies where he will attempt to improve them without working as a covert agent, parading as another team’s GM while just sending them all of the players they want on the cheap. Good luck with that.

The Astros won’t be a winning team next year. But they are finally making positive moves. I’m still skeptical of Jim Crane, but I like what they’re doing so far under his watch and I’m optimistic about Luhnow. We could be in for another very long season, but at least I’m no longer looking at the next five years in dread and fear.

All things considered, I’m glad to have even that kind of optimism heading into a new year.

Follow me for the latest Astros news, rumors and updates on Twitter @Astros290

It would be an understatement to call 2011 a disappointing year for Astros fans. Nevertheless, in this season of gratitude, I have good news. You do have toms things for which to be thankful. Here are some things that I’m thankful for this year, and thankful for as I look forward to 2012.

New ownership

Putting on the holiday spirit and putting aside my concerns about Jim Crane, the prospect of a new regime and new success in Houston is thrilling. I’m not expecting a lot of earth shattering moves this winter, but hopefully next year when the front office has gotten its legs under it, when they have a better view of their finances and when the Astros are finally free of Carlos Lee’s contract, maybe we’ll see some movement to fill some of their pressing needs. The good news, if you’re seeing the silver lining, is that with all the needs to fill, the Astros can’t help but upgrade.

Youth movement actually infused with youth

There was a lot of bustle and bluster last year about the youth movement in Houston, but I always thought it was a tad overblown. But, with the departure of Clint Barmes, trade of Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and Jeff Keppinger, and the aforementioned impending expiration of Lee’s contract, the Astros’ youth movement is for real. We saw flashes from Jose Altuve, Jimmy Paredes, JD Martinez, Henry Sosa, Jordan Lyles and Aneury Rodriguez, though each still has considerable work to do. But the flashes were highly encouraging. They get Jason Castro back next year, who is getting in some makeup work in the Arizona Fall League. And, thanks mostly to trades, the farm system is stocked for the first time in a long time with legit prospects like Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, Jonathan Villar, Brett Oberholtzer and Paul Clemens. Houston is still a long way off from being good, but you have to be thankful that there’s actually a visible path to being good for the first time in a while.

Rock bottom means one way to go

The best thing about seasons like this one is that there’s only one way to go — up. Things can only get better for the Astros from here out, and that will include the number one overall draft pick next year. A 56-106 season is hard to bear, but it does come with a near-guarantee that it only gets better from here.

Warm fuzzies

Because this season means stories like this and songs like this. The song doesn’t actually have anything to do with the Astros, I just love it.

Happy Thanksgiving and happy holidays!

Follow me on Twitter for all the latest Astros news and short commentary @Astros290

Ready to re-live the highlights and lowlights (mostly lowlights) of the 2011 campaign? Here we go… (and don’t forget to check the pictures…you never know when there might be a link you’ll enjoy)

Worst to first in one year. Everybody do the celebration limbo!

Astros MVP: Carlos Lee

It pains me to say it, but if it’s any comfort to you, take this as a comment on the team that Ed Wade and Drayton McLane have managed to construct. I refuse to give this award to anyone who didn’t finish the year on the roster (Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn) or to anyone who came up in the middle of the season and played fewer than 90 games (take your pick of minor league promotions), so it goes to Lee almost by default.

He led the Astros in hits, doubles, homeruns, runs and RBIs. He finished only behind Brian Bogusevic and Matt Downs in on-base percentage and slugging and was first in WAR (though a pretty unimpressive 4.6, only two-tenths better than what Bourn did in almost 200 fewer plate appearances).

Though you wouldn’t know it to listen to the commentators, he struggled mightily on defense at first base, but was still able to wrestle the first base job from Brett Wallace thanks to his bat. This really is more of a comment on the team that McWade has built, but still…kudos to Lee on being the best of what is left of the Astros.

Downs does deserve an honorable mention for posting much better than expected numbers as a pinch-hitter and utility substitute. He also struggles on defense but was easily the best bat off the bench for the Astros, posting an OPS better than 1.100 in June and August. He was unstoppable when he got on a roll and made it look at times like he might be able to get a starting job…if only the Astros could figure out where to put him.

It could be...might be...yep, fly out.

Astros LVP: Bill Hall

Normally I would reserve this for someone who killed them all year (leading candidates include Carlos Corporan, Chris Johnson, Brett Wallace and JA Happ…you get a lot of candidates for this on a 100+ loss team), but Hall really did something special in getting the Astros to realize after only 46 games that signing him to a $3.25 million deal was a monumental mistake, even on a team this bad.

He batted an embarrassing .224 with an even more embarrassing .272 OBP. The man who was brought in to provide power to the middle infield knocked just two long balls while striking out 55 times. His defense was also not everything the Astros had chalked it up to be. It was just another of the terrible acquisitions that have become a signature of the Astros the last few years — get a washed up player, set expectations higher than you have any reason to, overpay him and then take less than 100 games to admit it’s an unmitigated disaster.

The bitterness within me really compels me to give an honorable mention to Carlos Corporan for having the worst WAR among position players on the team (-1.3). He had a .188 batting average, didn’t know how to get on base (.253 OBP, 49 Ks with just 10 BBs) and couldn’t hit for any power at all (zero homeruns in 52 games and a .253 slugging, even lower than JR Towles). He has no arm, allowing 43 stolen bases while only catching nine baserunners, and that really is all on him. His throws were terrible. Only three players in baseball with 50 or more starts had a worse caught stealing percentage. He did all of that without even having Towles’s ball-blocking skills. I have no idea what made the Astros stick with a guy who is the same age as Towles, posts Towlesian offensive numbers and has worse defensive skills than Towles. It’s quite baffling.

The secret to my success - a killer curve and a huge noggin

Astros Cy Young: Wandy Rodriguez

Although I must admit it was a terrible prediction to have him competing for the Cy Young, he’s really the only choice for team Cy Young. He led the Astros in wins, quality starts, and WAR, was second in strikeouts and had the best ERA and WHIP among the starters.

Wandy’s road numbers were better than in years past, but that was more than balanced out by him not being his typical self at home. The previous three years, he was 20-12 with a 2.69 ERA at Minute Maid Park, where he held opponents to a .229 batting average. This year, he was just 4-4 at home with a 3.32 ERA and .256 batting average against. That said, he was still easily the best of the Astros starters and one of the few highlights in a year where they had the kind of terrible pitching the Astros haven’t seen since 2000.

Honorable mention to Bud Norris who had a breakout year with a 3.77 ERA. He pooped out a bit at the end of the year but was absolutely sterling in June, going 2-2 with a 2.53 ERA and .183 batting average against, while allowing just one homerun. It’s the year Astros fans have been waiting for him to have based on his stuff. If he can continue to build on that, he could be up for this award in 2012.

I used to pitch, now I hit. Skillzzzz. With a Z.

Astros rookie of the year: Brian Bogusevic

Admittedly, he did far more than I expected based on what I saw in the minor leagues and the first four months of the season. But what he did in August and September is enough to get my attention. In those last two months, playing mostly as a platoon player (because heaven forbid a young lefty in a completely wasted season be allowed to hit lefty pitchers), he batted .312 with four homeruns and 14 RBIs. Given more regular playing time next year (which he should be able to get with Bourn and Pence gone, Lee at first, Bourgeois being kind of a bust and Schafer being kind of a dope…pun intended) he should have a great opportunity to build on his solid finish in 2011.

Astros BP pitcher of the year: J.A. Happ 

"Hey, Mr. Happ, I thought you were pitching today." "I did." "Oh, sorry, I didn't turn the game on until the second inning."

Last year’s big acquisition in the Roy Oswalt trade busted this year, showing all the things that scouts had been saying for years would be a problem for him. He surrendered 21 homeruns in just 156 innings pitched and posted career worsts in ERA (5.35), WHIP (1.54), batting average against (.265) and OPS against (.806). And some of those might have been even worse had he managed to get past the fifth inning once in a while. He had the third-worst pitching WAR on the team, better only than Nelson Figueroa and Brandon Lyon. It was a huge step backward for Happ, who was just one of many pitchers that got shelled this year, something I have a hard time considering a coincidence. When one pitcher on a staff folds, you blame the pitcher. When an entire staff folds, you blame the coaches.

Coolest moment of the year: Berkman wins his first WS

Not truly an Astros moment, but there is a serious shortage of cool moments to choose from, so I’m going with the ex-Stro who, until David Freese’s heroics in games six and seven of the World Series, looked like a Cardinals victory would earn Lance Berkman the WS MVP. He got a hit in six of the seven WS games, batting .423 (11-for-26) with a homerun and five RBIs. And it wasn’t a postseason aberration. In October, he put up a .313 batting average and .413 on-base percentage, knocking two homers and driving in 11 runs (including 3 in that crucial game six of the WS). I’d really love to pick a coolest moment actually from the Astros season, but in a 106-loss season, the honor goes to an ex-Stro. Sorry.

Most embarrassing moment of the year: Bourn traded, Astros get no top prospects in return

It really can’t be said enough — the Astros got cleaned out when they traded their best player to the Braves and go no prospects in return. It was ripped (among others) on this blog, by Keith Law, by Jim Bowden, on the Braves blog Capital Avenue Club and by Baseball Nation. Ed Wade got his head taken off for this trade, just shortly after he’d won good will for appearing to do quite well with the Pence trade. Even with his long list of old veterans signed to bad contracts that would have been his legacy in Houston, this story line may supplant it as his legacy — getting Bourn in the Brade Lidge trade with the Phillies, watching him blossom into one of the best leadoff hitter/center fielder/base stealers in the game, and then trading him to Atlanta for far less than value.

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Van Buren Boys, yo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Last night’s game was a gem, a thriller and a very worthy opening game. And because of the outcome, the coverage today was about how Tony La Russa bested Ron Washington and how he’s a genius, a chessmaster, a Jedi Knight, Nostradamus meets Casey Stengel and everything that’s right about baseball.

I have no trouble admitting he bested Washington, who is starting to make a very disturbing habit of horribly mis-managing World Series games. Pinch hitting with Esteban German made even less sense than the plethora of intentional walks that Washington issued last night.

And I have no problem admitting that La Russa is a very talented manager. You don’t manage as long as he has and as successfully as he has (both in total wins and win percentage) by being a dummy. La Russa is a very talented manager and he definitely bested Washington last night.

But genius? Really?

People like Tim Kurkjian were talking about how La Russa got the exact situation he wanted when Allen Craig came up to pinch hit for Chris Carpenter with two on in the sixth inning…as if La Russa had actually done something to make it happen! They talk about it like it was a hard call for him to look at the situation and say, “Carpenter got us through six, I have an awesome bullpen, I have a tie game with two runners on base…now would be a great time for me to use my best pinch hitter!”

I’ll give credit where it’s due. It does take something to not completely choke in that situation as we’ve seen some inferior managers do from time to time (everyone here watched Brad Mills manage on a daily basis…you know the deal). I’ll give La Russa credit for not blowing it in that situation. But it’s not like he went with some really unlikely pinch hitting candidate who came through because of some crazy advanced metrics that showed the edge he had in that situation that blew everyone’s mind because they didn’t know it. He used his best pinch hitter with two runners on base. That wasn’t a genius move, it was the only logical move.

It wasn’t La Russa’s genius that got David Freese a one-out double. It wasn’t the genius of La Russa that caused CJ Wilson to throw a wild pitch that allowed him to get to third. It wasn’t the genius of La Russa that caused Washington to make the dumbfounding decision to intentionally walk Nick Punto (who hits like a pitcher) with two outs in a situation where you knew La Russa would be pinch hitting. It wasn’t the genius of La Russa that prevented Washington from realizing that getting Carpenter out of the game wasn’t a good thing because of course his offense will struggle even more with the Cardinals’ red hot bullpen. It wasn’t the genius of La Russa that got Craig a weak little RBI single that barely landed fair. And it wasn’t the genius of La Russa that caused Nelson Cruz to come up just shy on the attempt at the sliding catch of that hit.

A lot of things went the Cardinals’ way last night that had nothing to do with the genius of La Russa. That’s not to take anything away from him or from them. They’re a very good team and he’s a very good manager. But please, let’s stop giving him credit for things he can’t control and for making the obvious call in the obvious situations. The praise in things like this are dictated by the outcome. La Russa is a genius today because he won, but it was a close game and we could just as easily be talking about how Washington mismanaged the game but won anyway.

Follow me on Twitter for the latest Astros news and commentary…and La Russa haterade @Astros290

Since I’m tired of hearing people talk about how the Astros were wrong to trade Hunter Pence, here’s my rant of the day.

Everyone keeps seeing the Philadelphia Phillies right fielder light up the scoreboard lately, and while it’s true he’s had a fantastic season, this doesn’t discount all the other seasons Pence has had before 2011. And the point is, even if Pence had this good of numbers for four years running and wasn’t becoming overly expensive with each passing year, the Astros still made out like bandits in his trading. When you take an excellent farm system like Philadelphia’s, and you get their absolute best hitting prospect (Jonathan Singleton), and their absolute best pitching prospect (Jarred Cosart) for the second-best player on your club (because yes, Michael Bourn was the Astros’ best player at the time), you’ve made an incredible deal. Forget Hunter Pence, Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez are the kind of guys you trade those type of prospects for. Heck, the Astros got better farmhands than the Royals did when they dealt Zack Greinke.

According to Baseball-Reference, hitters comparable to Pence through their age-27 season include: Bobby Higginson, Rondell White, Sam Chapman, Andre Ethier, and Aubrey Huff. Were/are those players good? Yes. Were/are any of those players great? No.

In July, I understood the “Don’t trade Pence! He works harder than anyone on Earth!” people, as there were valid opinions on both sides of the coin as to whether or not management should deal him. Now, seeing the haul we got in return for him, you’d be asinine and simply a bad student of baseball to believe that the Astros were wrong in doing what they did.