Austin's Astros 290 Blog

News came over the weekend that the Astros are passing on re-signing Lance Berkman, which is funny coming on the heels of Richard Justice’s article that McLane needed to make a splash to generate interest for potential buyers.  I don’t know that getting Berkman back is in the long-term best interest of the team as I would like to see them make an investment in Brett Wallace, but I would also like to see Berkman retire as an Astro. When you consider the free agent options out there, landing Berkman was also probably the best shot that McLane had to make a splash and generate buzz from fans through the free agent market.

So, now that the Astros have passed, where will he go?  MLBTradeRumors reports that Berkman has named six teams that have expressed interest – Cardinals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Athletics, Cubs and Rockies.  The Rangers have also been talked about, but only if they don’t get Vladimir Guerrero back…and they probably will.  Berkman is reportedly willing to consider a DH job, but would prefer one at first base or corner outfield.  I can’t imagine that at his age with his mobility that a team would offer him a job in the outfield, so let’s put that option aside and cast off the Cardinals, who are obviously set at first base and would probably end up with Berkman as a backup player.  I don’t think Berkman would end up in St. Louis.

Let’s also put non-contenders aside, because at his age and with his accomplishments, a non-contender will be Berkman’s last choice.  It’s not to say that the Pirates, Blue Jays or Athletics wouldn’t land him as his last option, but they’re not great opportunities and certainly not front-runners for Berkman, regardless of what they can offer monetarily.

That leaves the Cubs and the Rockies as the most viable options.  The Rockies have a difficult decision because they just signed 37 year-old Todd Helton, degenerative back problem and all, to a two-year extension through 2013 worth $9.9 million.  He continues to put up a respectable OPS, but a lot of his real output numbers have dropped drastically — hasn’t hit 30 HR since 2004 and hasn’t had 90 RBIs since 2007.  He’s also spent considerable time on the DL, playing in just 118 games last year and 83 games in 2008.

Do the Rockies stick with the man who holds virtually every offensive record in the club’s history, or go for Berkman, who is three years younger and likely commands less money even though his numbers the last few years are better (without playing in Coors) and he doesn’t have a back problem?  It’s a tough call but an intriguing possibility, especially considering that Coors might rejuvenate his bat and help the Rockies get even more than they’d pay for.  And Berkman would land on a team that could easily contend in the very turbulent NL West.

Intriguing as the Rockies are, I think the Cubs are a more likely destination.  They have no questions at first base because they have no first basemen.  Their best option there is Xavier Nady, who has generally been a solid part-timer at best.  They underachieved last year and will be looking to bounce back with a new manager.  Berkman gets to go to a team that has loads of potential, a hitter-friendly park and the best possibility to stick it to the Astros throughout the season.  The Cubs also get a guy who has great numbers against their primary competition – the Reds and Cardinals.  I have to think that, barring another contender coming out of the woodwork, the Cubs and Rockies have to be the front-runners for Berkman, and that the Cubs would win out in that scenario.

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