The Astros’ offense was one of the worst in the majors last year, so it’s not shocking that it would have some struggles this year. Only the most optimistic fan would say that they expected the Astros’ offense to be significantly improved this year. However, even with that concession, the last three games have exposed a world of problems for the offense that shows that strengths and weaknesses go far beyond how many runs you score.
Scoring early but not often
This is a recurring theme from last season. The Astros have a tendency to come out and score runs at the beginning of the game, only to get shut down the rest of the way. This problem showed itself in Saturday’s game, when they scored three runs in the first two innings to take a 3-1 lead, scored another in the fifth for a 4-1 lead, but then got shut down the rest of the way as they were outscored 6-1 in the final four innings.
Should five runs of support be enough to get a win? If the pitching staff is on it’s game, typically, that would be a “yes.” However, scoring early and then getting shut down the rest of the game leads to predicaments like the one in Friday night’s game. The Astros mustered just one run in the first six innings on a solo homer by J.R. Towles in the third. They scored one more in the seventh to give Wandy Rodriguez (who pitched brilliantly) a skimpy 2-1 lead. The narrow margin compelled Brad Mills to pull Wandy for a pinch-hitter with runners on the corners and two outs even though Wandy had only thrown 83 pitches. With a better lead, Wandy comes out to pitch at least one more inning and the bullpen probably doesn’t surrender three runs in the last two innings, giving Wandy another hard-earned no-decision (also a recurring theme from last year).
In the four games since the second game in the Reds series when the Astros took a 4-0 lead in the first inning only to lose 12-4, Houston has scored 10 runs in the first four innings and only five in the last five. I will grant that it’s up to the pitching staff to hold a lead that the offense gives them, but it also hurts a pitching staff when a team scores a few runs early and then quits for the rest of the game. Like it hurt in Wandy’s start. The offense needs to be more consistent in its scoring rather than counting on three or four runs in the first couple of innings to carry them through the rest of the game.
Not making the most out of scoring opportunities
I don’t know why the Astros seem to struggle with scoring runs late in games, especially when it means keeping pace with teams that are chipping away at your lead. But it’s no mystery why they’re not scoring many runs in general.
They don’t make much out of their scoring opportunities. Houston is 22nd in the majors in batting average (.213) and OPS (.623) with runners in scoring position. They hit okay with runners on base (.267 BA, .698 OPS) but this is where their lack of power gets to them. Even though they’re top-15 in hitting with runners on base, they’re 26th in RBIs because they only have one homerun with runners on base. Their seven extra-base hits with runners in scoring position is tied for 21st. Three of their four homers have been solo.
This became a particular problem in Friday night’s game, when you combine this problem with their issue of scoring late in the game. They’re in the top-10 in the league in batting from the seventh inning on, but are 21st with only 7 RBIs because of situations like this one. Michael Bourn led off the inning with a single, was sacrificed to second and then stole third base. With one of the best baserunners in the league on third base and only one out, the No. 3 and 4 hitters (Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee) failed to get him home in a game the Astros ultimately lost by one run.
Key situations. This is what stats often can’t tell you. There’s no accurate measure for clutch. You just know that the most important hitters in the Astros’ lineup don’t have it when you look at situations like that.
Sidenote about Carlos Lee: Since the opening series against the Phillies, he’s batting .105 (2-for-19) with no homeruns and no RBIs.
Baserunning problems
Normally, a team with so many hitting problems would like to make up the difference with aggressiveness on the basepaths, a la Kansas City Royals. Unfortunately, aside from Michael Bourn, this team has serious baserunning problems. Whether it’s Lee getting called out for running inside the baseline, Brett Wallace getting thrown out trying to stretch a double or Jason Bourgeious getting caught stealing on a pitch out to end the game, baserunning really isn’t a strength for the Astros.
I don’t know if there’s anything that can be done to correct that problem at this level, but if there is, the Astros need to look into it. The inability to move baserunners up is killing this team.
Don’t worry…there’s still plenty of season left with me on Twitter. Follow me for the latest Astros news and commentary: http://twitter.com/astros290
I liked the “10 Things” piece a lot. Good stuff. Oddly optimistic from you, but it had some great “bright spots.” Bourn, Wallace, AND Towles…can’t wait. I especially liked your discussions about the Stros finally giving Towles a REAL chance. If they are going to give them to Wallace, Johnson, and the rest of the crew, than they can give that same chance to Towles. However, some of the things they might see as a reason to pull him quicker than others is his critical position on the diamond and his catching skills, not just his hitting. That might give him a little less rope when it comes to batting averages. Personally, I like the guy a lot and want to see him get a chance and succeed, but I am admittedly not in the clubhouse, dressing room, or manager’s office all the other times. I do believe there are things that are a bit “intangible” to the average fan.
Anyway, I wanted to comment a bit on a trend and say something I have spoken to a lot in previous years and on various sites. It’s about leadership and its role on this team. In short order, we have very little. What leadership the Astros do have is actually concentrated at the lower levels, but often this is not allowed to blossom when leadership at the upper levels keep it stuffed in the corner. I personally think that upper level leadership problem IS Drayton (and NOT Ed Wade as some may think). A seemingly joyful old [filthy rich] man, he isn’t too chatty (other than the usual cornball ‘we’re champions” bologna) but I do believe he is a tinkerer and quietly, over-involved. I think he demands amazing results on a string budget and often forces bad decisions to be made. He is penny wise and pound foolish when it comes to payroll. I think he actually believes the junk he tries to push at the average fan about “a winning team on the field” every year. But this guy needs to take a long look in the mirror. I really doubt he ever ran his other businesses the way he does the Astros. He is all over the place. Hangs on to sentimental favorites too long, but then has no patience for guys with real potential. He gives marching orders to Wade, but demands ridiculous results. That inconsistency up top filters all the way down to inconsistent play at the lowest level. Wade feels pressure to win now instead of being more patient. This pressure is felt by Mills, and so on down the line. Oddly enough, this ties in to this article as to why the team scores early or not at all. They feel immense pressure to perform NOW or be sent packing. That pressure means that they press, swing and miss (hence the various hitting coaches ALL having problems getting these guys to show some plate discipline) OR they press, then swing and [perhaps luckily] hit, and that little bit of positivity and optimism spreads, a few guys get some back to back hits, some runs go up on the board and all is well, yet they seemingly lose that patience and go back to panic mode as soon as the buzz fades. Bottom line is, they are very emotional. This emotional-ness can be induced by loads of stress heaped on the team from the top. A true lack of patience and BELIEF in them in the long run doesn’t allow these guys to just be who they are and play ball. Yes, I know, they are getting paid millions, but there IS a mental side too. Baseball is a business 95% of the time, but ON THE FIELD, it’s a GAME. And the mental side is a huge part of all games….then again, so are emotions.
Like the seemingly perfect family next door. All smiles, driving reasonable cars, doing the lawn every Saturday as a family, throwing the ball in the front yard, all the kids getting along, etc. They look like the modern day Cleavers. But inside the house, what you don’t see, is an incredibly demanding, critical and demoralizing dictatorial father. If little Johnny has a great day at little league, Dad is all praise. He talks little Johnny up to everyone he knows, but if Johnny has a bad day, he waits until they are in the car and then lets him have it in a calm, but equally demoralizing and demeaning way. He talks of the wasted talent, the demands to always do better…to an 8 yr old. He has everyone in his home so damned keyed up, they could crap golden bricks, but he doesn’t even know it. They all live in fear of him. Not of a physical beating, but of never meeting his expectations and feeling that his loyalty and care and very conditional. He esteems himself as the perfect family man, the anchor and real leader of the family but in one word, he is simply…delusional.
Drayton really thinks he keeps putting winners out on the field, but we ALL, INCLUDING THE GUYS ON THE FIELD know, that is just simply just not the case. He sets them up to fail, and then overreacts when they do. The right tools are not in place. These guys are consummate professionals and will give it their all, but each one is expected to have a career year, every gamble is supposed to pay off, and no one can ever get hurt in order to have this “magical” season that Drayton just KNOWS they can have. All they need to do is just, try a little harder. [Sigh] HE DOESN’T GET IT. He’s pressing, and so are the rest of them.
Dear Mr Mclane, have REALISTIC expectations. Quit burning out every manager, letting your GM take all the blame, weighing your players down with unreal expectations, and LIEING TO THE FANS. And for Gosh sakes, have a plan!
If he could spend 150 mil a year on salary each year for the next 3-4 years, he could have a contender now, but a shrinking budget, penny-wise pound-foolish way of conducting business and using HOPE as his method just will not work AND it provides no roadmap for future success either.
His lack of vision, patience, and reality simply trickle down throughout the organization. It’s time to sell, and bring in some true leadership, or at least a guy who will allow the true leaders below him to do their thing, what they are paid to do, and build this club into a winning ball team.