Here’s something I posted the other day on the Juicebox; food for thought for you 290 junkies on this slow Friday:
A thrilling win Wednesday night notwithstanding, many Astros fans have come to terms with the 2011 season. It’s a season of rebuilding, even if management won’t admit it, and with rebuilding almost certainly comes trades. The Astros have a number of veterans that they could, if they so chose, deal to contenders for a couple of prospects. So who’s on the list? Let’s take a look.
1. Carlos Lee
Potential landing spots: Yankees, Mariners, Angels, Indians
You got it folks. He’s the one that the club has been looking to deal for awhile, but the burdensome contract that he carries is a major deterrent for a lot of clubs, not to mention his severely diminishing power numbers and a defensive value of less than zero. This makes him interesting to AL clubs only, as he’d most likely fill in as a DH somewhere. You can never rule out the Yanks from signing a big bat to boost their postseason chances in a tough AL East, but I see them as an unlikely trade partner, simply because they already have Jorge Posada at DH and a plethora of other aging veterans to take care of. The M’s and Angels look to be in the thick of the wide open AL West race, and since neither team has a bona fide slugger in their lineup, they could be looking to add a potential power threat come July. Both teams also have a good amount of money to blow, so picking up part of Lee’s contract shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The Indians are the most intriguing of the bunch, as they will most certainly need to add a little pop to their lineup to stay competitive, and with a decent farm system, they could have something interesting to offer the Astros.
2. Wandy Rodriguez
Potential landing spots: Rockies, Marlins, Tigers, Blue Jays
No, the prospect of trading the team’s best pitcher doesn’t look very attractive to me either, but it’s an option that the Astros would certainly have to consider. W-Rod has been looking incredibly sharp lately, with a 3.41 ERA that is seemingly headed on the way down. The little lefty with the knee-buckling curve is surely starting to look more attractive to clubs with sparse starting pitching, and as he’s only earning $7.5 mill this year, he could be gotten at a bargain price. A team like the Rockies could be a good suitor, as their ace, Ubaldo Jimenez, has not performed well this year, and the rotation behind him won’t be able to hold up against the likes of the Giants’ in the NL West. The Marlins will be looking to add pitching to their thin rotation headed by the now injured Josh Johnson to compete with Philadelphia. In the AL, the Tigers could make a Big Three of their own if they were able to land Rodriguez, slotting him in as the #3 guy behind Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. If the Jays are still riding on Jose Bautista’s bat to stay close in the AL East come July, they could be interested in Wandy as well to be a veteran presence in a rotation full of young guns.
3. Hunter Pence
Potential landing spots: Phillies, Yankees, Mets
Shocking, I know. However, Pence’s name is the one that I’ve been hearing the most in trade rumors of late. While he is a fan favorite in Houston and is said to be the poster boy of the franchise, management has to be disappointed that he hasn’t really reached superstar level yet, not to mention the fact that he’s starting to become more expensive to keep in the lineup. Pence is 28, and there’s no guarantee that the level he’s playing at right now isn’t going to be the peak of his career. It’s no secret that the Phils have not had a stellar offense this season, and because they need a right-handed bat desperately, they’re probably the most likely place for Hunter to end up. If Nick Swisher continues his horrid season though, the Yanks could get in on this deal as well. And if the Mets want to save face by the potential upcoming trades of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, they could choose to acquire Pence, though with their cash-strapped situation, that seems a bit unlikely. All in all, due to the nature of Pence’s popularity, I could only see him being dealt for a blue chip prospect like Domonic Brown or Manny Banuelos.
4. Brett Myers
Potential landing spots: ??
This one is the least likely to happen, as the Astros rather stupidly signed Myers to a long-term deal last winter after his superb debut season in Houston. The problem is, Myers is getting up there in age, and the likelihood of 2010 being a fluke year for the veteran is rather high. Whether it was the high workload of last season or a nagging injury, Myers has not pitched well this year, and that could scare potential trade partners away rather easily. I was an advocate of dealing Myers last year before the deadline, as the club could have landed a number of prospects equal to or greater than the value of the ones received in the Roy Oswalt deal. However, Astros brass chose to stick with him as the staff ace, and that decision hasn’t seemed to pay off so far. If Myers can get healthy and start pitching well again, another club just might be desperate enough to eat a lot of payroll and add him to their roster to make a playoff push.
Dave Schoenfield at the SweetSpot wrote an interesting post about trades that need to be made, including the very Hunter Pence to Philly idea that you mentioned here. He said that the Astros should trade Pence for Domonic Brown and Jarred Cosart. It’s an interesting idea, especially considering how many deals Ed Wade has made with the Phillies already, most with pretty good success.
I disagree he’s the Astros’ best player. Leading an offensively inept team in most offensive categories doesn’t make him more valuable than what Wandy gives you from the mound or what Michael Bourn gives you on defense and as a good on-base guy who can steal bases. But, it’s an interesting idea and definitely a compelling trade. Worth the read:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/11381/five-trades-that-need-to-be-made
Funnily enough, I actually read the Schoenfield post before I wrote this. While the Phils really do need a right-hand bat in their lineup, I found myself wondering if Schoenfield was serious when he wrote about the Pence for Brown and Cosart deal. I for one think that Domonic Brown is in the majors to stay at this point, and if he’s not the starting right fielder for the rest of this season and beyond, I’d be shocked. I’m not sure if I fully buy into the hype surrounding him, as he’s overly lanky and his swing is pretty long right now, but he’s rumored to be a five-tool guy, and Philadelphia has coveted him for years. They were willing to deal Happ to us and not Brown, which was saying something since Happ was already in the bigs by then. The Phillies built their current core from the farm (Rollins, Howard, Hamels, etc) and they won a championship with it. I don’t see them turning into the National League Yankees and dealing prospects for veterans, especially one with a ceiling like Brown’s for a good-but-not-great player like Pence. But heck, if they wanna do it, I’m all for it.
Your point about Bourn is well said. I think Wandy is obviously the best pitcher on the team, but he’s too inconsistent to be named the best current Astro. It should only take a couple of bad starts in a row for fans to be cursing his name again. As for Bourn, (I’m trying to think of how to say this), he IS the most valuable player to the team, but I still don’t think he’s the BEST player on the team. Bourn is the premier baserunner in the game, and his glove is second to none, but he just doesn’t produce enough at the plate to merit the “best player on the club” tag. While he’s called on to produce runs, not drive them in, his lack of power is obvious, and his .342 OBP is nice, but not fantastic. Pence obviously can’t spit at Michael’s baserunning ability, but he does have an above-average glove. I agree with you that leading the Houston offensive categories is no large feat, but he does lead the NL in doubles (17) and his WAR is 13th in the league. A good player, not a great player, but I still think the best on the ‘Stros. Though in all honesty, it’s kinda splitting hairs picking the best player on this club.