The long speculation about Hunter Pence is over. After a furious few days of rumors and speculation, Pence is a Philly. It was announced in the bottom of the third inning of the Astros game last night, and finalized in the fifth. Pence went out to right field but was called back and replaced by Jason Michaels before the inning started. He was met by a series of handshakes and hugs in the dugout, and appeared to fight back tears when he hugged third base coach Dave Clark.
It was a predictably emotional scene. He’s a Texas boy and a fan favorite, but as with Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt last year, his departure also gives him a much better chance to play in and win a World Series now.
In return, the Astros got four players, two of which are top Phillies prospects. Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later is a pretty good haul for a team that is in desperate need of replenishing their very poor farm system.
Cosart and Singleton both made Keith Law’s top-25 ranking of prospects that he revised earlier this month. He ranked Cosart No. 17 and gave this comment: “I was dismayed to see how much he throws across his body, but the fastball/curveball combo is worthy of the front of the rotation.”
Singleton came in at No. 24: “He began his pro career as a first baseman, but since he’s blocked in the big leagues by Ryan Howard, the Phillies moved him to the outfield. He struggled with the switch and is now playing first again. He also had issues with some mechanical tweaks that have since been undone. Like Hicks, he gets on base at a great clip for his age (19), and his power may be held down by the FSL.”
Both were up a few spots from their preseason rankings. They are probably both at least a couple of years away as they haven’t played any higher than Double-A ball to this point in their careers. But they are both young, both members of the 2009 draft class. Singleton is 19 and Texas native Cosart is 21, so being a few years away is okay.
Also, they might already be Triple-A caliber players in the Astros farm system.
It is decidedly risky by the Astros to give up a good player like Pence for no proven players, but it’s a gamble that I like and that I view as necessary. They needed to bolster their farm system, and frankly, the way this season is going they don’t need any major league ready players. Taking two top prospects is a gamble I’ll take every time. You never know when a deal could be like when the Astros sent Freddy Garcia, John Halama and Carlos Guillen to the Mariners for Randy Johnson, only to have all three become key players for the club for many years.
Getting two top prospects for a player that is probably due for a regression is a very nice deal. Pence is a career .290 hitter who is batting .309 right now. But his career second half numbers aren’t very impressive and he’s hitting .200 since the All Star break. His 3.0 WAR is the highest it’s been since his rookie year. His trade value may have never been higher than it was right now, and with the bidding war between the Phillies, Braves and perhaps as many as four other teams, the Astros probably got the best value they ever would have for Pence.
And it’s important to remember that they still have their best players. According to Baseball Reference, Pence’s WAR the last three years is 6.3. But Michael Bourn’s is 12.0 and Wandy Rodriguez’s is 9.6. To get two top prospects, even risky ones, for your third or fourth best player is a really nice trade-off.
Other benefits for the Astros — Jason Bourgeois will finally get a chance to prove himself as a regular starter. He’s got a .370 batting average and 20 stolen bases in limited playing time this year. He’s been categorized as a speedster journeyman, and maybe he is. But now we’ll get a chance to see for sure if he’s more.
He’s off to a good start. Bourgeois has batted third in the last three games and has answered the call, going 6-for-12 with a double and three stolen bases.
The loss of a starting outfielder means the Astros have more incentive to give more starting time to Brett Wallace. Many, including myself, have groused about his split playing time. Having Pence gone makes it a lot harder to justify that move of Carlos Lee over to first base.
To fill his spot, the Astros announced they have called up JD Martinez, who bypasses Triple-A, coming straight up from Double-A Corpus Christi. He’s been killing the ball down there, with a .338 batting average, .959 OPS (bolstered by a very impressive .414 on-base percentage), 13 HRs and 72 RBIs. It’s hard to say how much playing time he’ll get, but it should satisfy many fans who have been wanting to see the young outfielder.
For other perspectives:
Bill Baer at SweetSpot blog Crashburn Alley says the Phillies overpaid for Pence, but should see significant improvement over Raul Ibanez.
Keith Law says in an ESPN Insider piece that the Astros have new No. 1 and No. 2 prospects, but that they are taking big risks on a pair of high-risk, high-reward players.
Jim Bowden says in an ESPN Insider piece that the Astros lost out by gambling on a bunch of minor league players without getting any proven major leaguers for the best player on their team.
Sounds like Bourn could be next. If we could get Delgado + one of their top 3 pitching prospects (Minor, Vizcaino, Teheran) in return, we’d have a potentially exciting rotation in 2-3 years. Cosart, Vizcaino (my preference), Delgado, & Lyles would give us real hope for the future.
Wow – what a craptastic deal for Bourn. None of their top 4 pitching prospects include. The difference between Schafer & Bourgeois is negligible. Oberholtzer could be a decent #3/4, but that’s all we got. I can’t wait till Wade is gone.
Yeah, people were split on the deal for Pence since they did get a couple of guys that are considered top prospects, even if they are gambles and a few years off. But nobody is split on this deal — the Astros got ROBBED. I was afraid of this. They overvalued Pence and undervalued Bourn. They just traded their best player and got ZERO top prospects in return. I don’t know how I can possibly watch them the rest of this year.
You watch with the happy knowledge that this management group will be gone soon.
That’s the only consolation, small as it is.
In case nobody noticed, with Pence and Bourn gone, Carlos Lee now leads the team in average, runs, homeruns, rbis, and is second in stolen bases.
Man, our team is terrible.
Man, we are just giving them away this weekend.
Just what the f…. Just what the f….. is Wade thinking ? He didn’t get ANY of the top pitching prospects the Braves have in the farm system for Bourn !
Just go home Wade. Please. just get the hell out of the organization.
Smells like a fire sale to me.
Good question, and it didn’t get any clearer with the roster moves they made Sunday night. Baffling. It all just gives me a headache.
I don’t know how I’m supposed to remain a fan after last night’s roster moves. I usually get on people for being fair-weather fans, but come on, this is barely the same team. I was happy with the Kepp trade. The Pence and Bourn moves were bittersweet. But now this, just optioning Johnson and Wallace?? I don’t understand it. We send down some of our best players to “work on their swing” (which is crap), just so Downs and Michaels can be everyday players??? Give me a break. This isn’t rebuilding, this is just reckelss destruction. Our outfield is a double-A prospect, the only rebuilding piece, and an aging veteran hardly fit to be a bench player. Our infield is a lazy left fielder, a double-A prospect, a should-be-Brewer, and probably out best pinch hitter. Not to mention our .175 catcher.
I might just watch the Phillies from now on, at least then I have Pence to cheer for.
Good luck with finding anything positive to write about Austin. You’ve got your work cut out for you the rest of the year.
I agree with you on the roster changes. CJ and Wallace have already shown they can dominate Triple-A pitching. Going to Triple-A won’t help them change their swings. It’s major league pitchers who know how to throw them strikeout breaking balls that are eating them up. That won’t get fixed at Triple-A, and the Astros certainly don’t get better by either throwing out bad veterans or kids who are going to be eaten alive by major league talent they’re not ready to face. Paredes and Bogusevic aren’t Altuve and Martinez. Those guys posted sick stats and showed they were ready to play at another level. Paredes and Bogusevic haven’t.
And I’m not sure why you think I’d even try to find something optimistic to write about. I’m not Chip Bailey — I’m a realist. I won’t dig for something positive to write about where I don’t see it.
[...] prospects (Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton) when the dealt Pence in what I considered to be one of the few truly good deals of the Ed Wade era. Those two are doing great in Double-A while Pence is putting up mediocre [...]