The reviews for the Hunter Pence trade on Friday were mixed, some saying the Astros did well, others disagreeing. Reviews of the Michael Bourn trade on Friday were not so split. Across the board the Astros have been ridiculed for giving up their best player without getting any top prospects in return. The criticism is well-warranted.
Houston sent their gold glove winning leadoff hitter who has led the league in stolen bases three years in a row and in return, they got outfielder Jordan Schafer and minor league pitchers Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu.
Schafer is a solid defensive center fielder and former Braves top prospect. But, as far as I can tell, he hasn’t done much with the bat since passing the Single-A level. Since 2008, between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, he’s batting just .246. In 363 major league at-bats, he’s batting .223 with 105 strikeouts to just 45 walks and a .310 on-base percentage. There are serious doubts that he has the bat to stay in a major league lineup, even with his defense. He’s only 24 and there’s time to recover from the injury and PED suspension that have beset him the last couple of years, but history doesn’t leave a lot of optimism.
Oberholtzer is considered by most to be the best player acquired in the trade, but is still only projected by those same scouts to be a back end of the rotation guy. He’s described as a control lefty with a good cutter/changeup combo. But, with a 3.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at double-A, even he might be a way off.
Clemens has a similar ERA (3.73) at double-A but with a worse WHIP (1.35). He’s a power arm, pitches 91-96 according to scouting reports, but if he can’t control his pitches, that power won’t do him much good at the major league level. Same story with Abreu. He’s said to touch triple-digits and has posted good numbers in relief at Triple-A, but without much command, I have serious doubts about his ability to get out major league hitters.
His numbers at triple-A (2.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) are also the best he’s posted since single-A, so either he’s just figuring something out at the age of 26 despite the tougher competition, or it’s an aberration. Given his age and history of injuries, he doesn’t seem like a great investment.
All in all, it’s a pretty skimpy return for the Astros’ best player (yes, he really is/was, no offense to Pence, his fans or his family). I don’t know if the Astros were so willing to take so little because they were just that scared of dealing with a Scott Boras client, or (as Keith Law noted), because it’s a system that overvalues power and undervalues defense. I’d also add on-base percentage and base stealing. Nobody in Houston seemed to care much that he was a dominant defensive center fielder, that pure leadoff hitters like him are harder and harder to come by, or that his on-base percentage was higher than Pence’s each of the last three years.
In the end, it’s very disappointing because it seems the Houston brass never fully appreciated what Bourn brought to the team. I can only hope he’ll find greater appreciation for his skills in Atlanta.
For other critical reviews of the trade, read:
Keith Law, who wrote, “It makes me wonder if Houston had a ranking of Atlanta’s top 25 prospects but looked at it upside-down.”
Jim Bowden, who gave the Astros an F and wrote, “For the Braves, the most impressive part of the trade is that GM Frank Wren didn’t give up any of his top pitching prospects…This was the best trade of the deadline in terms of the player acquired and what was given up.”
ESPN SweetSpot Braves blog Capital Avenue Club wrote, “Not only is Bourn a perfect fit for Atlanta, he came at a very reasonable price and one that allowed the Braves to keep their top 8 or so prospects. This is an extremely good deal for Atlanta.”
Rob Neyer writes, along similar lines to Dave Schoenfield’s piece, that Bourn is “way better than you know.”
Jeff Sullivan at Baseball Nation, who wrote, “The Braves have to be ecstatic that they added their outfielder without having to sacrifice any of their most highly-prized young pitching.”
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The Pence deal was not bad from the standpoint that two of the players acquired immediately become Houston’s top two minor league prospects.
On the other hand, the Bourn deal is pretty much an unmitigated disaster. Trading your best player for minor league depth?
However, for Astros fans, the most troubling aspect of the Bourn trade is that, presumably, Jim Crane approved it.
Sometimes, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Yeah, Crane was advertised as a guy who’d be willing to spend money, but so far it seems like he’s even more about slashing payroll than McLane has been. The early signs are troubling.
I don’t know why anyone would believe Crane would come in and spend a lot of money seeing as he’s financing a big chunk of the purchase. Talking about ‘doing it right’ and ‘build from within’ is just code for low payrolls.
I’m okay with that approach though. The last thing I want to see is another Lee/Tejada/Matsui type of trade or FA signing.
I know we had to deal Pence now while his value was high and the two teams trying to acquire him are in a divisional race, but I think we could have waited till the winter to deal bourn. I admit I was excited to see a deal get done but not that one.