1. Carlos Lee is hitting again

I wouldn’t want to be a ball on the way toward Lee’s bat these days because he’s been killing it. He’s on a six-game hitting streak that has lifted his batting average back up over .300 for the first time since Apr. 14. In those six games, he’s batting .480. He has four RBIs, which matches the total he tallied over the previous 14 games, and he hit his first homerun since Apr. 22. Overall, not what you’d hope for the number four hitter who’s getting paid in excess of $18 mil, but still, it’s a fun ride while it’s running.

2. Offense all over the place

Carlos Lee is pacing the offense but he’s not the only one hitting. After going nine straight games of scoring three runs of fewer (their longest stretch since the woeful, rebuilding 1991 season), they scored 12 in two games against the Brewers. Altuve knocked three hits yesterday for his first multi-hit game in almost two weeks, Jed Lowrie launched his team-leading fifth homerun (which is amazing considering he missed the first week of the season and didn’t hit his first until Apr. 23) and Chris Johnson continued his great May with a couple of hits. He’s batting .300 this month and his OPS is up almost .200 points over last month. Granted, Randy Wolf and Shawn Marcum aren’t as good as what they’ll be facing this weekend with the Rangers, but nice to see them finally break out of the skid, and maybe just in time for their future division rivals.

3. How do you like me now?

Alright, what happened to J.A. Happ last night? Just as people were starting to talk about it being time to demote him, he went out and had his best game of the season. He wasn’t Cliff Lee or anything, but six shutout innings when your offense puts up four runs was more than good enough. I’m hoping he gets to pitch with Brian Knight behind the plate more often. He was giving pitches just off the outside corner all night and Happ was working it for all it was worth. He wasn’t bad, just consistent, and Happ figured that out pretty fast. And this is why I love Baseball Reference — I’m able to go and find out that in two career starts with Knight behind the plate, Happ is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. That’s the fourth-best ERA he has with any umpire who’s called at least two of his starts.

As a side note, the umpire that has called the most games for Happ is Lance Barksdale, which is unfortunate for Happ. In four starts with Barksdale behind the plate, Happ is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

4. Bring your gloves to the park tonight…or man up and catch it with your hands

I have to say that I’m super stoked about the series this weekend, and particularly about the pitching matchup tonight. Not just because I’m unabashedly in the tank for Wandy Rodriguez as my favorite Astros pitcher, but because I’m fascinated to see what happens. Wandy faces Neftali Feliz and even though both of these pitchers have been very good in their careers, their numbers against each others’ teams are terrible. This is the first time the Astros see Feliz as a starter, but in six career relief appearances against them, Feliz is 0-1 but also has three saves; he has a 1.16 WHIP but has a 6.00 ERA.

And in six career starts against the Rangers, Wandy has a 5.13 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but is 4-2. I’ve got a feeling, even though both of these pitchers have been very good this year (particularly Wandy) that you’re going to see a lot of hitting tonight. Call it a gut thing, but I just feel it. Or it’s the Chipotle I had for lunch. Could go either way.

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The Astros got two of their top prospects (Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton) when the dealt Pence in what I considered to be one of the few truly good deals of the Ed Wade era. Those two are doing great in Double-A while Pence is putting up mediocre numbers and still playing really bad defense in Philly. While it’s true that Pence’s homers were the difference in yesterday’s game, it’s also worth noting that there never would have been a second homerun if not for a Pence error in the top of the ninth.

So, on balance with that trade — Astros get two top prospects; Pence beats Astros in a meaningless May game in a season where they’re not expected to win more than 80 games anyway.

Win to the Astros.

I think the Lance Berkman trade is even more glaring because of what is currently happening as a result of the trade. The Astros dealt Berkman for Mark Melancon, who Jeff Luhnnow then turned around and dealt for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland.

Berkman is still playing well and still hurting the Astros, it’s true. However, Melancon is now in the minors for the Red Sox while Lowrie is tied for the league lead among NL shortstops in homeruns (despite missing time due to injury) and is second among NL shortstop in OPS. And, while Weiland pitched poorly before going on the DL, he has good stuff and is only 25; Berkman is 36 and Melancon is a 27 year-old middle reliever.

Again, I think the Astros win handily there.

I know some of this depends on future development of young players, but I hardly feel haunted by those trades. I think the Astros made out very well and can handle a loss here and there at the hands of former players in exchange. That’s kind of the nature of trades, anyway, isn’t it?

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He'll be doing this in an Astros uniform for at least one more start

Jordan Lyles turned in another solid start yesterday against the Phils. He’s made two spot starts this year and each time he’s pitched six innings and allowed three runs (only one of which was earned yesterday). He has a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .227 batting average against, all of which easily best every Astros starter but Wandy Rodriguez. And news came yesterday that Lyles would get another start. The Astros sent David Carpenter to Triple-A to make room for Lyles and it looks like he’ll be there at least for another five days.

The question they need to start asking themselves right now is,  should they keep giving him chances even when Kyle Weiland returns?

Lyles is looking good and would have been even better yesterday if it hadn’t been for a two-out error by Jose Altuve. If they’d gotten that out, that would have been one less homerun allowed, two fewer runs allowed and fewer pitches thrown. Maybe he goes another shutout inning and the line looks a little more like this — 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER.

I’ll take that.

There are a couple of glaring things that stand out. He has already allowed three homers in 12 innings. Even acknowledging the homerun that shouldn’t have happened yesterday, that’s trouble. His K:BB rate (2.25) is also not knocking my socks off, but again, it’s better than everyone else in the rotation but Wandy, and it’s miles ahead of Weiland and Lucas Harrell.

This doesn’t mean that I don’t have high hopes for Weiland. Even with how he’s pitched this year, I like him a lot. He’s young and has good stuff and I’m not convinced he wasn’t pitching hurt. It’s hard to truly evaluate what a pitcher was doing when he has to step off the mound for an injury. We don’t know how long he’d been bothered by whatever eventually caused him to go on the DL.

But, for this year, I think it might be time. My one real reason for him being in the minors is that he doesn’t have the stamina for the big leagues yet. But is there any reason they couldn’t bring him along like the Nationals are with Stephen Strasburg? Couldn’t they make sure he never goes more than 6 or 7 innings per start and then sit him after he reaches a certain innings limit? It makes sense, and he’ll get experience against major league hitters.

My view on this has started to change. I said they should leave him in the minors this year but after the way he’s performed in these two games, I want to see more. I’m not 100% convinced as we do have to keep in mind that these starts were against the Reds and Phillies — two teams that are in the bottom half of the league in runs and bottom 10 in OPS.

But would it be worse than continuing to watch Happ and Harrell struggle to make it through six innings? Harrell hasn’t had a quality start in a month and Happ’s ERA of his last four starts is 7.18.

Either way, I think it’s time for the Astros to make a decision on Lyles. Keep him in the minors or keep him in the majors, but either way, stop sending him down and calling him back up and sending him down again. It’s not good for a kid. They need to make a decision one way or the other soon…and I’m leaning towards keeping him. For what that’s worth.

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In May, unfortunately, they’re performing a lot more like most of the Astros teams of recent years. So far this month, they’re 29th in RBIs, 28th in batting average (.228) and 27th in OBP (.286).

Most of that slide has happened over the last eight games. The Astros are just 2-6 in that stretch thanks to a .191 team batting average. In that stretch, they’ve also hit into almost as many double plays (9) as they’ve had extra-base hits (11) and are batting .143 (6-for-42) with runners in scoring position.

And it’s happening because the youngsters that were leading the way last month have completely collapsed. Jose Altuve is batting .244 with a .603 OPS this month, a far cry from what he did in April, when he was one of the league’s best hitters. Jordan Schafer has completely quit hitting. His once-impressive on-base percentage is just .268 this month and he’s hitting just .167 in May.

Then, of course, there’s J.D. Martinez’s 1-for-29 slide that has earned him plenty of days off lately has been well documented. He’s batting .045 this month, hasn’t gotten an extra-base hit in his last 12 games and hasn’t hit a homerun in a month.

In short, they’re struggling. A lot.

Yesterday, I linked to a Chip Bailey post in which he asked whether it might be time to send Martinez to the minors to get his swing straightened out. I think it might be a bit early for that, but if he keeps it up, that’s where he’s headed. Same for Brian Bogusevic. He’s one of the few Astros actually hitting better this month, but he’s not hitting for anywhere near the kind of power they expect from him, and his .231 average with runners in scoring position is killing them.

But is that really the answer? They thought these guys were ready at the beginning of the season and for the first three or four weeks, they looked like they actually were. Is demoting Martinez, Bogusevic and Altuve to give more playing time to Justin Ruggiano, Travis Buck and Matt Downs the kind of solution the Astros are looking for?

I have to say loudly that it is not. As much as I think that Ruggiano should be in the majors instead of Travis Buck and Justin Maxwell (both of whom are getting way too much playing time), I don’t think that trying to eke out a few more wins with veterans while the young guys compete at a level at which they’ve already excelled is not the solution.

These are the growing pains of a young a club. It hurts. And while it might be enticing to let Martinez go back to OKC to regain some confidence, does it really do him any good if he keeps going back and forth from the majors to the minors, hitting minor league pitchers but not major league pitchers? And how long before he starts getting the Luke Scott treatment, where he’s platooned and punished any time he doesn’t get instant results?

As much as it hurts to watch the Astros flounder like this, sometimes you have to get thrown in the deep end of the pool and learn how to swim. That’s where they are. These players don’t have anything left to prove in the minors. They have to learn to hit major league pitching. And that’s where I think their real next move comes in — a new hitting coach. I know Mike Barnett hasn’t been here very long, but he hasn’t been successful at any of his other stops. And when you look at a team that was hitting and suddenly isn’t, that’s indicative of a coaching problem. Slump epidemics don’t just happen. It’s not contagious. When a team is full of slumping hitters who can’t get out of it, they’re not getting properly coached.

That’s the real move the Astros are up against. This is the team they’ve got and I think it’s the team they want. They need to stick with it, keep giving them chances to pull out of it, and start looking for better tutors, because Barnett is simply not getting the job done. Like he didn’t in Kansas City. Like he didn’t in Toronto before that. These recurring results can’t be a surprise.

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If you find yourself making this face a lot while watching the Astros, you can know you're not alone (Gene J. Puskar/AP)

It’s been a rough week for the Astros. They haven’t done much winning since their season-high five-game winning streak and there’s some good reading to be done on their struggles.

Chip Bailey at Ultimate Astros talks about their offensive woes and opines that it may be time to shake up the lineup. I think he might be a little premature on his proposed changes but he’s right that if things continue on their present course, the Astros will have to make some changes even in the middle of their own rebuilding process.

He also makes this worthwhile observation in his photo caption: “The Astros would have to win the next 44 games in a row for Brad Mills to match Cecil Cooper’s winning percentage.” Seriously. Wow.

The one I really loved was the piece from yesterday by Greg Lucas in which he discusses Brad Mills’s decisions with the pitchers in yesterday’s loss. Playing “by the book” and going with the closer in the save situation may have cost the Astros a win.

It’s decisions like those that make me agree with the guys on the Baseball Today podcast when they talk about how ridiculous it is that managers’ decisions should be dictated by save situations. Yesterday was a save situation, so Mills went the closer, even though Wandy Rodriguez was dominating the Pirates and had only thrown 94 pitches. If that’s not a situation that calls for a pitcher to get his first complete game of the season, I don’t know what is.

Going with Brett Myers wasn’t a terrible decision. He’s been great this year. It’s just frustrating that in this modern approach to baseball that a pitcher can’t even be allowed to finish out a game when his pitch count is low and he’s completely owning the other team. Wandy had retired 14 straight batters and 21 of his last 22. He hadn’t allowed a run in six innings. Just let him finish the game!

It doesn’t deserve an entire Mills Misfires rant, but it was definitely a bad decision and I’d really very much prefer to see a manager who is able to look at situations like that and recognize that it’s important not to mess with a good thing just because it’s a save situation. This obsession with save situations is an orthodoxy that really needs to be broken.

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And they owe a lot of that to the stellar performance of the bullpen:

The Astros have won five of their past six, thanks in large part to a drastic improvement by the bullpen. They were last in the NL in 2011 with a 4.49 bullpen ERA; this year, they’re tied for third with a 2.94.

Brett Myers anchors the bullpen as the closer and he’s been dominant, going a perfect 7-for-7 on save opportunities, while posting a nearly-invisible 0.58 WHIP and holding opponents to a .138 batting average. That’s just unfair. Rhiner Cruz has been a pleasant surprise with his 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and will hopefully be back from the DL soon. Even Brandon Lyon is looking a lot better with his 2.89 ERA (although, to be honest, his 1.50 WHIP and .324 batting average against aren’t very confidence-inspiring).

Wilton Lopez is back to form, David Carpenter is nailing things down and…well…pretty much everyone except the lefties are getting the job done. They are coming along very well and you have to give credit to Doug Brocail for the differences we’re already seeing this year.

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Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been making a mockery of their divisional competitors. Every series they’ve played since their standalone opening game against the Marlins has been against NL Central teams, and in those games, the Cardinals are 15-9, having only lost one series so far. And it’s been especially ugly since that lone series loss. In their six games since then, the Cardinals have outscored the Brewers and Pirates 44-23.

Will the Astros fare better than everyone else has so far? I have to say…probably not. But, game-by-game, it should be a pretty fun series to watch.

Friday, May 4, 7:05 PM CST — Lucas Harrell (1-2, 4.71) vs Kyle Lohse (4-0, 1.62)

By the numbers, this is the game where the Astros appear most overmatched. But, looking at Lohse’s opponents, I’d say he’s due for a bad game. He’s been very good against the Astros when he wasn’t that good. In his career against Houston, he’s 8-7 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But, the offense he’s faced from the Astros hasn’t been as good as it is this year. And Lohse has to nibble. He takes advantage of his opponents’ lack of patience, which has been a huge benefit to him so far. His four opponents so far (Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Cincinnati) all rank 22nd or lower in on-base percentage and only one (Milwaukee) cracks the top 20 in OPS. Houston, on the other hand, is fifth in on-base percentage and 11th in OPS. Believe it or not, he hasn’t face a lineup this good yet and I think he’s in for some trouble, even with his past success against the Astros. I don’t expect Harrell to fare that well since he hasn’t been good for two starts in a row, but I think this game could be a bit of a slug fest to get the series going with a bang.

Saturday, May 5, 6:05 PM CST — Bud Norris (1-1, 5.46) vs Jaime Garcia (2-1, 2.78)

Could the timing be any better for Norris? Only one of his last three starts has been quality, and then only barely so — 6.2 innings and 3 ER against the Mets. But he’s pitching at home, where he’s been a lot better this year (3.29 ERA), and he’s going against his favorite opponent. There is nobody against whom he’s fared even remotely as well as he has the Cardinals. In 10 starts, he’s 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s held them to a completely ridiculous .219 batting average. This doesn’t turn around Norris’s season, but he gets a boost and the Astros take game two. Naturally.

Sunday, May 6, 1:05 PM CST — J.A. Happ (2-1, 4.60) vs Adam Wainwright (1-3, 6.75)

Wainwright has struggled in his effort to return from injury last year, and Happ continues to attempt to overcome being Happ. I expect this to go back to being  a slugfest after a nice pitching matchup Saturday night. Wainwright hasn’t even fared well against the weak offenses he’s faced. Only one quality start so far, and as with Norris, only barely so — 6 innings and 1 ER against the lowly Cubs. Unfortunately for the Astros, the Cardinals fare virtually as well against lefties as they do against righties. I think it’s a fun show to watch but that the Cardinals take the rubber match from hapless Happ.

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1. Jordan Schafer

Where else could he bat? He leads the team in strikeouts, which is frustrating, but he’s also tied for second in walks, leads in stolen bases and has an on-base percentage that’s nearly 90 points higher than his batting average. He gets on base and moves on base. The perfect leadoff hitter.

2. Jed Lowrie

Another good on-base guy who can provide a little punch. He’s really shown what he can do the last six games. A solid hitter who could bat just about anywhere in the lineup but provides especially useful tools in the No. 2 spot.

3. Jose Altuve

It would be unconventional, which is why I think Mills would never do it, but he’s going to be the most consistent hitter on the team and although he won’t hit that many homeruns, he provides good pop. He actually leads the Astros in slugging right now. It’s a team devoid of power so they may as well put their most consistent hitter there. A hitter, by the way, who hits very well in every situation, whether it’s bases empty, runners on or runners in scoring position. Put him here behind Schafer and Lowrie and he’ll be an RBI machine.

4. J.D. Martinez

He hits best with runners on base, so give him as many opportunities to hit with runners on base as possible. He leads the team in RBIs and would get just that many more chances being behind three awesome OBP guys like Schafer, Lowrie and Altuve.

5. Carlos Lee

Really past time to move him down a slot. He’s not consistent enough to bat 4th anymore, although he’ll still hit in spurts and bust out the power from time to time. I like a No. 5 hitter who can swing away but doesn’t necessarily have to be counted on to hit for average or get on base like you expect a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter to. Lee fits that profile perfectly. Again, this is something that I don’t think Mills would ever do because money has convinced him that Lee can’t be moved. But he really should be.

6. Brian Bogusevic

Basically he’s here for lack of a better spot. Even though hitting behind Lee might hamstring his baserunning ability just a little, it’s an even trade considering it breaks up the lefties in the lineup and that it’s better to bat him here than 8th. I’m also not convinced that Travis Buck is anything more than a solid backup. I like him off the bench but mostly just seems to get some lucky swings from time to time and that’s not enough to start.

7. Chris Johnson

Why not bat CJ 6th, you might ask? Because, for some strange reason, he just hits best in the 7th spot. I have no idea why, but that’s how it has always been since he came in to the majors. It’s disappointing that they can’t get max production out of him in a better spot, but you have to put him where you can get the most out of him. Check out his career numbers based on batting position:

• 5th — .613 OPS
• 6th — .684 OPS
• 7th — .840 OPS

His OPS in the 7th spot is .120 points higher than his career average. For whatever reason, the Astros just get the most out of him batting 7th.

8. Jason Castro

Because, where else do you put the guy who’s last among the starters in OBP and slugging? His hitting isn’t coming along as quickly as I’d hoped, but at least he can hit pressure-free in the 8th spot and maybe get things figured out.

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Then he batted just .209 in September, finishing the season with a .276 batting average and .654 OPS.

Although it’s a small sample size here in 2012, what he’s doing in the early season has people like me convinced that what the 21 year-old did in July and August of last year wasn’t a flash in the pan. Far from it, that was just a brief glimpse at his much greater potential.

So far this season, Toovie is batting .377 (third-best in the NL) and is tied with MVP-runner-up Matt Kemp for most multi-hit games (10). Most impressive yet was his performance yesterday against the Brewers — 4-for-5 with a double, one RBI and three runs.

But we already knew he could do that. What’s really impressive is what he’s changed about his game since last year. We could see in spring training that patience at the plate was being drilled into him as a priority, and I’m very impressed with how quickly he seems to have picked it up. He’s never going to be confused with Lance Berkman or Chipper Jones when it comes to plate discipline, but he has already walked seven times this year in 69 at-bats. That isn’t a lot, but it’s a drastic improvement over last year when he walked just five times in 221 at-bats. He has already topped his walk total in less than one-third the at-bats. That’s impressive improvement.

Naturally, his strikes have also gone up a little, but that’s more than a fair trade-off when you consider the improvement in his on-base percentage. Last year, his OBP was only 21 points better than his batting average. So far this year, it’s 52 points better. So not only does he have the NL’s third-best batting average, but he also has the 6th-best OBP and the 5th-best OPS.

What he’s doing is just that much more impressive when you consider value by position. Again, it’s early on the season so we have small sample sizes, but so far he’s one of only five second basemen in the league with a batting average over .300, he’s the only second baseman in the league with an OBP over .400 and his OPS is second only to Ian Kinsler. He has the best OPS among second basemen in the NL and a massive .170 edge over second-best Daniel Murphy.

All of this from a guy who just turns 22 next month. I think last month was definitely not a flash in the pan. Altuve is for real.

It’s also worth mentioning that he has company with JD Martinez, who is also top-10 in the NL in on-base percentage and OPS. Martinez and Carlos Lee are also both in the top-10 in RBIs. It’s been a long time since multiple Astros have been in the league’s top 10 in any category for any period of time. And while I’m slightly more skeptical about Martinez’s ability to sustain what he’s doing than I am about Altuve, these are more encouraging indications for the future. They have a way to go yet, but the Astros are finally beginning to assemble the kind of lineup that a winning club might. Maybe not this year, but maybe a lot sooner than we may have thought coming in to the season. That’s about as encouraging as it can get in Houston right now.

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Martinez and Altuve are giving Astros fans reason to hope. Everyone slap a butt to celebrate. (photo: Bob Levey/Getty Images North America)

Houston had another explosive getaway game yesterday, driving in seven runs on 14 hits for their lone series victory and just their fourth win in the last 15 games. They’ve had a rough go lately, especially with the great pitching they faced against the Dodgers and Nationals. But the wins are bound to start coming eventually.

I’m not saying this is an 81-win team this year. But there are some very encouraging signs despite their 7-12 record.

A primary source of their struggles has been their difficulty in taking advantage of situations with runners on base. They’re certainly not hurting for opportunities. They lead the league with plate appearances with runners on base and plate appearances with runners in scoring position. They’ve done okay with those opportunities as they are eighth in the league in runs, which, if maintained, would be a serious departure from recent history. Houston hasn’t finished higher than 22nd in runs scored since 2004.

But they could be doing a lot more because they also lead the league in runners left on base (by a pretty healthy margin ahead of the Rangers and Yankees) and are third in runners left in scoring position per game. It’s difficult to watch them not coming through in those situations, but if they keep getting runners in scoring position, things will start to average out and they will come through in more of those opportunities. That’s encouraging.

They won’t be able to do anything about their lack of power this year. The Astros are top 10 in the league in runs, RBIs, batting average and on-base percentage, but 18th in slugging. That power doesn’t come overnight. They’ll just have to hope they can develop (or acquire, when the time is right) people at power positions who produce more power than Carlos Lee, Chris Johnson and Brian Bogusevic currently do. In the mean time, I still have to think that all those opportunities with runners in scoring position will start paying off more.

Unfortunately for the offense, their many opportunities have been thwarted by very poor pitching. The Astros don’t rank well in most pitching categories (quality starts being the lone exception). But that will turn around, too. Wandy Rodriguez has already been very good. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any of his starts and he’s only allowed one in his last 14 innings pitched. But he’s been the victim of terrible defense in a way no other pitcher has. Eight of the Astros’ 13 errors this year came in his first two starts. He also lost a 1-0 game to the Nationals in which the only run that scored was a result of two defensive miscues.

That bad defense won’t continue. Wandy should have at least three wins by now, so again, that will average out.

Bud Norris has been progressively worse with each start, but if history holds, he’ll get better. He’s never been very good in April or May, but June and July are great months for him. His bad April isn’t necessarily a cause for concern. If he’s still pitching poorly in June, then he has a problem. But for now, I think it’s safe to assume this isn’t indicative of how his season will go. Disappointing that he doesn’t seem to be getting better, but at least we know what to expect.

Speaking of knowing what to expect, J.A. Happ has been the definition of mediocre. Before yesterday, he’d gone six innings in each of his starts and allowed two or three runs. Reliably mediocre…that’s all you need from a fourth starter.

Then there’s Lucas Harrell…decent overall numbers but when you look at him game-by-game, it’s very interesting. He’s had two really good starts and two really bad starts. If he keeps going out there and pitching well every other game, that gives the Astros great chances to win. Too optimistic? Maybe. But right now he’s doing fine.

The point is, the rotation has had its problems but honestly should only get better from here. Especially Kyle Weiland, who was terrible in his first two starts but showed real promise in his third against a solid Dodgers lineup. This isn’t blind optimism, there is real reason to think that the pitching will get better and provide a more effective complement to what the offense is doing.

I don’t know what that means for this year because it still feels like a lost season. But the signs are promising. You have got to be encouraged by what you’re seeing from a lot of the guys, especially JD Martinez and Jose Altuve. Even at 7-12, I’m seeing a lot of reasons to like where the Astros are going right now and they might even be watchable by mid-summer.

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